By takumihamano 
The Russian ruble has been a focal point in global trade discussions, especially in light of recent geopolitical developments. Here are some key updates and insights into the trade dynamics involving the Russian ruble:
- Informal Currency Exchange: Russian companies have created an informal currency exchange operating outside of Russia to circumvent sanctions. Large Russian exporters leave up to 80% of their export revenue in non-sanctioned currencies in foreign accounts. The exchange rate on this ‘shadow exchange’ is significantly higher than the official rate, with buyers paying a premium of 1.5-2% above the Central Bank rate, sometimes reaching 5-10%. Transactions involve exporters selling foreign currency to importers, banks, and intermediaries in exchange for rubles. Source
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US Holds Off on Russia Tariffs: The White House stated that the US did not impose tariffs on Russia due to ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This decision was made by President Trump, who is focused on the peace talks impacting thousands of lives. The absence of tariffs on Russia doesn’t imply different treatment compared to other countries; existing US sanctions already hinder significant trade with Russia. Source
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Germany Seizes Russian Oil Tanker: Germany seized the Panamanian-flagged tanker Eventin, carrying approximately 100,000 metric tons of Russian oil. The seizure occurred after the tanker, linked to Russia’s ‘shadow fleet,’ experienced an electrical failure and was towed to German waters in January 2025. The German government now possesses the tanker and its cargo, representing a potential precedent for EU sanctions enforcement against Russia’s oil trade following its invasion of Ukraine. Source
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US Imposes Tariffs on Imports from 180+ Countries and Territories: The US imposed tariffs on imports from over 180 countries and territories, including uninhabited islands. The 10% base tariff includes an additional ‘reciprocal tariff,’ with the highest rates applied to Cambodia. The broad scope aims to prevent countries from circumventing tariffs by using third countries as transit points, citing China’s post-2018 practices as an example. Ukraine is also included in the list of countries facing a 10% tariff. Source
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Ukraine Corn Exports Surge Predicted Amidst New US Tariffs: Ukraine’s corn exports could significantly increase due to new US tariffs. Ukraine exported approximately 30 million tonnes of corn in the 2023-24 season and is projected to export 22 million tonnes in 2024-25. Countermeasures by the EU, Australia, and China to US tariffs could create strategic opportunities for Ukrainian corn, soy, wheat, rapeseed, sunflower oil, and barley exports. Source
Summary
The trade dynamics involving the Russian ruble are complex and influenced by various geopolitical factors. The creation of an informal currency exchange by Russian companies highlights efforts to bypass sanctions. The US has held off on imposing new tariffs on Russia due to ongoing peace talks, while Germany’s seizure of a Russian oil tanker underscores the enforcement of EU sanctions. Additionally, the US has imposed broad tariffs on imports from numerous countries, including Ukraine, which could impact global trade patterns. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s corn exports are expected to surge as a result of new US tariffs, presenting strategic opportunities for Ukrainian agricultural products. These developments illustrate the intricate interplay between trade policies and geopolitical tensions.