By takumihamano 
Vietnam’s trade balance has been a focal point of economic discussions recently, especially in light of new developments and challenges. Here, we provide an overview of the current situation and its implications for Vietnam’s economy.
Key Developments:
– US Imposes 46% Tariff on Vietnamese Imports: Starting April 9th, 2025, the US imposed a 46% reciprocal tariff on imports from Vietnam. This move has caused widespread concern among economists and business leaders, particularly affecting Vietnam’s textile and garment industry, which already faces a 16% tariff on its products. The US is Vietnam’s largest market for textiles and garments, with exports exceeding USD 10 billion in 2024. The additional tariff could severely impact the competitiveness of Vietnamese businesses in this sector.
– Vietnam Opens Key Agricultural Exports to China: In a positive development, Vietnam and China signed a protocol allowing the export of chili peppers, passion fruit, bird’s nests, and rice bran from Vietnam to China. This agreement is expected to boost Vietnam’s agricultural exports, which generated billions of USD annually. In 2024, Chinese consumers spent USD 4.6 billion on Vietnamese fruits and vegetables.
– Vietnam Adjusts Import Tax Rates: Effective March 31, 2025, Vietnam’s Decree 73/2025/ND-CP adjusted import tax rates on several goods. Notable reductions include import tax on cars, ethanol, frozen chicken legs, and various nuts and fruits. These adjustments aim to balance trade and support domestic consumers.
– Vietnam’s Q1 2025 Budget Revenue Soars: Vietnam’s Q1 2025 State budget revenue reached 721.3 trillion VND (USD 27.95 billion), exceeding the annual target by 36.7% and increasing by 29.3% year-on-year. This surge in revenue is attributed to strong domestic revenue and effective tax inspections and audits.
– Vietnam’s Stock Market Volatility: The VN-Index experienced significant volatility, dropping over 100 points in two sessions due to trade war concerns and margin calls. However, a positive reversal occurred after President Trump announced a 90-day tariff delay, leading to a near-full recovery of lost points.
Summary:
Vietnam’s trade balance is currently navigating a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities. The imposition of a 46% tariff by the US on Vietnamese imports poses a significant threat to key industries, particularly textiles and garments. However, new export agreements with China and adjustments to import tax rates offer some relief and potential growth avenues. Additionally, Vietnam’s strong Q1 2025 budget revenue and the stock market’s resilience amidst volatility highlight the country’s economic robustness. As Vietnam continues to adapt to these changes, strategic negotiations and diversification of export markets will be crucial for maintaining a positive trade balance and economic stability.