The Growing Impact of Yuan Trade on Russia-China Relations

In recent years, the economic relationship between Russia and China has deepened significantly, with the trade of goods and services increasingly being conducted in Chinese yuan. This shift has had profound implications for both countries, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions.

One of the key developments in this area is the depreciation of major currencies against the Russian ruble (RUB) since January 2025. The US dollar (USD) has depreciated by 20%, the euro (EUR) by 16%, and the Chinese yuan (CNY) by 19% against the RUB. This trend highlights the growing strength of the Russian currency and the increasing use of the yuan in bilateral trade. The Central Bank of Russia’s decision to maintain its key rate at 21% due to rising inflation is expected to have minimal impact on the RUB exchange rate, further stabilizing the currency’s value in international markets (https://ria.ru/20250321/stavka-2006341943.html?rcmd_alg=slotter).

The strengthening of the RUB and the increased use of the yuan in trade have significant implications for Russian businesses. For instance, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) experienced a sharp decline of 8.5%, shedding $23.7 billion in market capitalization over two days. This was partly due to the collapse in oil prices and the imposition of tariffs by the US. The depreciation of the yuan against the ruble has made Chinese goods more affordable for Russian consumers, potentially boosting imports from China (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/05/russian-markets-reel-from-trump-tariffs-oil-price-collapse-a88618).

Moreover, the strategic partnership between Russia and China extends beyond trade. Both countries have expressed a commitment to enhancing cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI). This collaboration aims to overcome obstacles, foster inclusivity, and create a new chapter in the AI era. The partnership also seeks to prevent the monopolization of AI technology and ensure equal access to AI capabilities, which could have far-reaching implications for the global tech industry (https://iz.ru/1870338/posol-knr-zaiavil-o-planakh-pekina-razvivat-sotrudnichat-s-moskvoi-v-sfere-ii).

In the financial sector, the increased use of the yuan in trade has led to a shift in the dynamics of international economic relations. The Russian market remains attractive to foreign companies, with several US firms planning to participate in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2025). This indicates a continued interest in the Russian market despite geopolitical tensions (https://ria.ru/20250403/rynok-2009090453.html?in=l).

Overall, the growing use of the yuan in Russia-China trade is reshaping the economic landscape, providing both opportunities and challenges for businesses. As the two countries continue to strengthen their economic ties, the impact of this shift will be felt across various sectors, from finance to technology.

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