Russia’s International Trade: Key Developments and Challenges

In recent months, Russia’s international trade landscape has been marked by significant developments and challenges. Business professionals with interests in the region should be aware of the following key events and trends:

1. Sanctions and Economic Resilience:
   The US National Intelligence report highlights that sanctions against Russia have failed to weaken its economy, which is now recognized as the world’s fourth largest in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). The report also notes Russia’s advancements in space, drones, AI, and trade alliances, particularly with BRICS nations. Strong ties with China, Iran, and North Korea are also emphasized (https://ria.ru/20250328/razvedka-2007722629.html).

2. Trade Relations with the US:
   Russia has proposed to the US the lifting of sanctions against Aeroflot to resume direct air travel. This proposal, reiterated in a meeting with the US on April 10th, aims to expand business and public ties between the two countries. However, no response from the US has been received yet (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7642574).

3. Pork Exports Expansion:
   Agro-Eco, a major Russian pork producer, has started exporting pork to Georgia, targeting restaurants and retail chains. In 2024, Agro-Eco produced 214,000 tonnes of processed pork products, a 19.5% year-on-year increase. The company also began exporting to Congo, India, and Serbia. Russia’s overall pork exports increased by over one-third in 2024, reaching 320,000 tonnes (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7656554).

4. Chinese Car Sales Decline:
   Sales of Chinese cars in Russia decreased significantly in Q1 2025, with March sales totaling approximately 41,000 units, a 49% drop. High car prices and reduced credit availability are major factors impacting sales. Domestic brands gained market share, reaching 39% in Q1 2025, despite their sales also decreasing (https://iz.ru/1867468/2025-04-09/rossiane-stali-mense-pokupat-kitaiskie-avtomobili).

5. Coal Industry Challenges:
   Netbacks for Kuzbass coking coal plummeted 10-16% in mid-March due to global price drops and RUB weakening. Reduced Chinese demand and low steel demand contributed to the price fall. Domestic Russian coking coal demand is projected to fall by 5% due to lower steel production and high lending rates (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7602734?from=glavnoe_6).

6. Renewable Energy Projects:
   Russia’s Ministry of Energy has approved parameters for additional renewable energy project selection in the Far East for 2026-2028. The goal is to address a projected 1.7 GW energy deficit. The projects will include solar and wind power plants, with significant investments planned (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7621778?from=top_main_3).

These developments indicate a complex and evolving trade environment for Russia, with both opportunities and challenges for businesses engaged in the region. Staying informed about these trends is crucial for making strategic decisions in the current geopolitical and economic landscape.